Global Famine Incoming? Fertilizer Production Tanking…
[Reupload] 40%+ fertilizer production offline... not looking good.
Fertilizer Supply In Jeopardy…
A third of the world’s fertilizer travels through the Straight of Hormuz every year, and we still have nearly zero vessels traveling through the shipping lanes, since Iran continues to threaten violence.
With the shut down of LNG production at QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan and Masaieed facilities, that also impacts the Qatar Fertilizer Company, which is the world’s largest urea supplier.
Bahrain’s Bapco Energies, which produces sulfur, and SABIC in Saudi Arabia have also had to curtail all production as none of their exports can leave the Gulf region.
In total, 46% of the world’s seaborne urea exports and 44% of its sulfer exports also travel through the Straight, which are key inputs for various fertilizers.
That’s already bad enough, but the blockage of natural gas supply is exacerbating the situation even more, since many Asian countries rely on this energy to power their fertilizer plants. So far, we’ve seen negative effects in Bangladesh and India. Which we will talk about in a bit, but first we have the most recent news out of China.
China
On March 16th, Bloomberg reported that China had ordered exporters to halt outbound shipments of nitrogen-potassium fertilizer blends.
Beijing also reiterated existing restrictions on urea exports… there would be no new export quotas issued anytime soon. In mid-March, Reuters reported that Beijing also banned exports of certain phosphate varieties.
China shipped over $13 billion dollars in fertilizer last year, they’re one of the world’s largest exporters.
According to Reuters’ analysis of Chinese customs data, between 50 to 80% of China’s fertilizer exports are now restricted. That could mean up to 40 million metric tons of product locked inside China’s borders.
They are keen to prioritize food security and insulate their domestic market from price shocks.
China imports around 45% of its crude oil from the Middle East and 25%-30% of its LNG. Half of the 9.6 million tons of sulfur China imported in 2025 came from the Middle East, and sulfur is essential for making phosphate fertilizers.
Chinese fertilizer plants that can’t get their feedstocks on schedule are facing rate cuts or temporary shutdowns.
The countries that depend on Chinese fertilizer are now in serious trouble.
Last year, China supplied roughly a fifth of fertilizer imports for Brazil, Indonesia, and Thailand. A third for Malaysia and New Zealand. About 16% for India. So, China closing off its markets only makes the situation worse…
Bangladesh
In Bangladesh, they have already had to shut down five of their six urea fertilizer plants due to natural gas shortages.
Bangladesh gets roughly two-thirds of its imported gas from Qatar. When QatarEnergy halted shipments, Bangladesh’s gas supply cratered. The government ordered the shutdowns to conserve what gas remained for household use and power generation.
Bangladesh needs about 2.6 million tons of urea every year for agriculture. They only produce about a million tons domestically… the rest is imported, largely from the Middle East. So they were already dependent on imports, and now their domestic production has collapsed too.
The government says they have 468,000 tons of stockpiled urea. Enough for now. But that clearly won’t be enough. They’re issuing emergency tenders LNG cargoes…
India
Moving onto India, they are the world’s largest importer of urea.
Bloomberg reported on March 4th that Indian urea producers had started trimming output after Qatari LNG supplies were suspended.
By March 11th, the situation had escalated… companies including the IFFCO, the Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative, India’s top producer, had either halted facilities or moved up annual maintenance schedules.
Even if gas supplies were able to reach the country, it could take up to a month to get these facilities back online.
The Indian government invoked the Essential Commodities Act on March 9th, issuing what they called the Natural Gas Supply Regulation Order. Fertilizer plants are receiving 70% of the gas they garnered over a previous six-month average. So, they are already starting to ration natural gas supply.
More than half of India’s imported natural gas comes from the Gulf countries. India’s 32 fertilizer manufacturing plants all run on natural gas.
India imported over 40% of its urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP) from the Middle East last year. They’ve been scrambling to line up alternative suppliers like Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt, and Russia, but they are competing with a variety of countries for the same supply.
Others From The MENA Region
All of this disruption is happening right before growing seasons in the Spring and Summer. Which means reduced crop yields, and price inflation in not just India. But likely across the globe.
In Pakistan, fertilizer producer Agritech announced its gas supply had been completely cut off. Pakistan is essentially 100% dependent on Qatari gas imports.
Egypt is facing similar issues. Egypt, which is one of the top ten fertilizer exporters globally and the largest in Africa, has its own vulnerability: it has relied heavily on Israeli gas imports, which are all shut down due to the conflict.
We are seeing fertilizer production or its inputs curtailed across the region.
Europe
Europe is getting hit too, even though it’s not directly importing from the Gulf on the same scale. The numbers aren’t much better. Dwindling O&G supplies coming in from Russia is certainly making things worse...
Poland’s Grupa Azoty, one of the largest fertilizer producers in the European Union, temporarily stopped accepting new orders for nitrogen fertilizers.
Slovakia’s Duslo, the country’s largest fertilizer producer, cut ammonia production to the “technical minimum.”
CRU Group, the commodities analytics firm, estimates that about 20% of European ammonia capacity and 25% of urea capacity are currently curtailed.
The timing of this war is catastrophic. The Northern Hemisphere spring planting window runs from mid-February to early May. And fertilizer is applied early in the crop cycle. If farmers can’t get it now, they have three options:
Pay astronomical prices for whatever’s available, which crushes their margins.
Reduce application rates, which means lower yields.
Switch crops, move from nitrogen-intensive corn to other crops like soybeans.
If we see crop switching on a mass scale, we’re looking at a major corn production shortfall in 2026, which cascades into livestock feed, ethanol, and consumer food prices.
It’s too early to say if we are going to see a global famine, but that at least seems likely in poorer regions of the world. Developing nations.
First world nations might be a bit better off, but we could face large-scale shortages or price hikes to deal with dwindling levels of supply.
At this point, we’re talking about 40-50% of the world’s fertilizer production being curtailed or outright shut down thanks to this war.
I’m not trying to fearmonger, but what other conclusion are we supposed to draw about this situation… even if peace is declared tomorrow, it will take months, if not far longer to unravel the damage that has been done. So, it’s already too late to salvage this year.
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